2010s Top PCs Shape Up and Ship Out
2010’s Top PCs: Shape Up and Ship Out!
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The focus on ultrathin PCs will continue to grow in 2010, but the value equation for many consumers is still not compelling enough to drive significant growth, leaving the segment with less than 5% of total portable PC shipments this year.
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Mininotebook shipment growth will drastically slow and plateau. Lack of differentiation and declining prices for other portable PCs will translate into shipment growth rates in the low double digit range, just under the portable PC average for the remainder of the forecast period.
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Average selling price (ASP) declines will slow dramatically. Stronger market demand should translate into solid shipment growth this year, making it less likely that the market will aggressively lower ASPs to spur growth.
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Shipments of portable PCs with WiMAX embedded will surpass shipments of portable PCs with 3G cellular embedded in 2010. While activation rates for 3G enabled notebooks may be higher than WiMAX-enabled notebooks, the foundation is being laid for future WiMAX adoption.
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The share of all-in-one desktops will double. New momentum in the commercial sector will drive strong shipment growth and help all-in-one desktops to capture nearly 10% of the worldwide desktop market in 2010.
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The drivers that have made portable PCs so popular have not changed. Although portable PC shipments will grow well past the 50% mark, value conscious desktop adoption in emerging markets will slow this growth slightly.
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The expected commercial market rebound will help in the process of experimenting with new computing models, enabling virtualization of the desktop client to gain some traction.
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Without compelling touch-specific software, consumers aren’t likely to buy touch-enabled PCs in large quantities and application developers will hold back until a larger installed base is available.
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Although Apple’s iPad could find success, it’s not expected to spur increased sales of Windows-based Tablet PCs. Forthcoming tablet products from traditional PC makers such as HP and Lenovo are likely to garner interest, but not high shipment figures.
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DVD will remain the dominant optical drive type in PCs because it is ‘good enough’ from both a price and picture quality standpoint to withstand the challenge from Blu-ray for dominance in desktop and portable PC drives.