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Speculation that the first quarter 2009 may have seen the worst of this recession may just be accurate, if IT distributor Synnex’s Q1 earnings are any indication.

Synnex reported revenues of $1.73 billion compared to $1.75 billion for the same period a year ago, just over a 1 percent change.  Net income climbed to $19.5 million or 59 cents per diluted share, beating Wall Street estimates of 52 cents per share. That compares with $16.8 million or 51 cents per diluted share in the same quarter a year ago.

CEO Kevin Murai told analysts that Synnex increased its market share and did an effective job of managing costs.

Synnex also reports that Global Business Services revenues climbed to $32.92 million, a 30 percent increase from the same period a year ago. Services were the bright spot in Hewlett-Packard’s most recent earnings report.

For Q2 Synnex is currently expecting revenues to be between $1.63 billion and $1.73 billion with net income of between $15.7 million and $16.7 million and diluted earnings per share between 47 cents and 50 cents. Last year Synnex’s revenues for Q2 came in at $1.88 billion. The forecast decline in revenues is between 8 percent and 13 percent.

“Our outlook for the second quarter reflects the current demand environment in combination with our continued ability to execute and produce profitable results,” Murai says in Synnex’s prepared statement.

Citing low visibility, IT distributors Tech Data and Ingram Micro recently forecast a 20 percent revenue decline for calendar Q2.