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Just when you thought it was safe to let yourself bask in the hope of an
economic recovery, think again.

After raising its month-ago forecast of PC builds to one that predicted 5
percent growth quarter over quarter, FBR
Research is now lowering that forecast, predicting instead a decline of 1.5
percent in PC builds for the fourth quarter of 2009.

“Recent checks into Q4 PC builds with the top five notebook ODMs and top four
desktop motherboard makers are worse than our month-ago checks,” the firm said
in a brief report. The lower build rate is likely due to lower-than-expected
October shipments, some component shortages and a possible Q3 build-ahead.

“We hear component tightness, but not shortages, still exists for hard disk
drives, optical disk drives, DDR2/DDR3
memory chips and pickup heads,” the firm said.

Further, the firm said the slight negative revision to Q4 notebook builds is
due to lower-than-expected demand for consumer ultra-low-voltage systems.

Nevertheless, FBR research said it will
leave its revenue estimates for AMD and
Intel unchanged until it can evaluate next month’s checks.