PC sellers face a tougher upgrade pitch as rising memory and component costs push up prices, putting pressure on customer budgets and fleet refresh plans.
Global PC shipments fell 21% year over year to 57 million units in the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research. Shipments also dropped 13.8% from the previous quarter as higher memory and component costs pushed up system prices.
Consumer demand weakened as more expensive PCs made upgrades harder to justify. Commercial purchases held up better, supported by corporate device refreshes and migration from Windows 10, but could not offset the wider market decline.
Last year’s stronger results also amplified the drop. Businesses accelerated purchases ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline in 2025, while tariff-related inventory adjustments boosted shipments during the same period. Counterpoint forecasts a 27% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter shipments. Full-year volumes in 2027 are forecast to remain broadly flat compared with 2026.
Lenovo leads as ASUS and Apple gain market share
Lenovo remained the world’s largest PC vendor, shipping 15 million units for a 26.3% market share, despite a 23% annual decline. HP ranked second with 10.3 million units, down 31%, while Dell shipped 7.6 million, down 25%.
Apple proved more resilient, with shipments falling 11% to 5.6 million units. Its market share rose to 9.8% from 8.7% a year earlier, helped by the MacBook Neo. ASUS recorded the smallest decline among the top five vendors, with shipments down 7% to 5.2 million units and market share climbing to 9.2%.
Counterpoint senior analyst Minsoo Kang said, “While commercial refresh cycles and Windows migration continue to provide some support, they are no longer enough to offset weakening demand.”
The AI memory crunch complicates recovery
Rising memory costs are creating a difficult balance for PC manufacturers: protect margins without pricing out customers. As vendors favor configurations that better absorb component inflation, budget-conscious buyers may find fewer affordable choices.
The pressure also reflects competing demand for memory used in AI infrastructure. Partners should base customer quotes on confirmed vendor pricing rather than assume that weaker PC demand will bring lower acquisition costs.
David Naranjo, Counterpoint’s associate director, warned that “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery.” Flat shipments in 2027 would indicate that the market has stopped shrinking rapidly, not that demand or affordability has returned to normal.
How partners can prioritize customer refreshes
For resellers and managed service providers, the first step is identifying which replacements customers can safely postpone. Fleet assessments should consider operating system compatibility, application performance, warranty coverage, and whether continued support costs justify keeping a device in service.
Partners can then divide refresh proposals into urgent replacements and purchases that can be phased over time. This gives customers a clearer explanation of where spending is necessary and where extending a device’s useful life remains practical.
Configuration recommendations should reflect actual workloads. Lower-cost systems may suit routine office tasks, while more demanding applications may justify additional memory. Showing that distinction helps customers assess the business value of an upgrade.
Financing or phased purchasing may help spread spending, but proposals should explain the total cost, contract terms, and any pricing conditions. Customers need to understand what they are committing to before approving a refresh.
Weaker shipments could complicate partner sales
For resellers, distributors and managed service providers, falling shipments could mean slower deal conversions, tighter customer budgets and greater pressure to justify upgrade spending. Customers may postpone fleet refreshes or request lower-cost configurations, making forecasting and inventory management more difficult.
Partners should distinguish confirmed customer orders from refresh opportunities that remain under discussion when forecasting demand. Before committing to inventory or delivery dates, they should confirm customer approval, vendor availability, and how long quoted prices remain valid.
The practical takeaway is to make every refresh proposal explain the cost of buying now and the consequences of waiting. Partners can support that decision with device assessments, clear pricing terms, and a phased deployment plan. These services give customers a stronger basis for approving necessary replacements while keeping discretionary upgrades within budget.
Read more: Learn how AI demand could keep hardware prices volatile in 2027 and complicate partner quotes, margins, and customer refresh plans.