Stock Index: Week Ended Nov. 14, 2003, Channel Stocks Dip Slightly

Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC) was in an upbeat mood during a down week for most channel stocks.

Shares in the El Segundo, Calif.-based IT services company rose 8.63 percent for the week ended Nov. 14, even as our overall Ziff Davis Channel Zone Stock Index slipped 1.64 percent, closing at 1044.29.

Wall Street applauded CSC’s second quarter results, as CSC announced net income of $108.1 million, up 16.4 percent from $92.9 million for the corresponding quarter last year. CS First Boston, JP Morgan, Prudential and Smith Barney Citigroup upgraded CSC shares on the news. CSC has indicated that its business pipeline is improving and on Nov. 13 announced that it won an eight-year, $200 million contract with BuyIT.gov, the Department of Veterans Affairs’ federal acquisitions center in Austin, Texas.

Only one other stock in our 30-member index, GTSI Corp. (GTSI, +6.57 percent), managed to rise more than 3 percent during the week. The Chantilly, Va.-based solutions provider specializes in government projects. The company’s sales for October, 2003 were $113 million, up 8.1 percent from October 2002.

Meanwhile, at least five stocks slid at least four percent: PC Connections (PCCC, -4.62 percent), Affiliated Computer Services Inc. (ACS, -5.16 percent), Agilysys Inc. (AGYS, -5.81 percent), Avnet Inc. (AVT, -5.92 percent) and Pomeroy IT Solutions Inc. (PMRY, -12.60 percent).

The index’s biggest weekly decliner, Pomeroy, released disappointing third-quarter results. Revenue was $158.1 million, down 7.5 percent from the corresponding quarter last year. Net income slid to $2.6 million, down sharply from $5.1 million in the corresponding quarter last year. Still, CEO Stephen Pomeroy put a positive spin on the situation. He noted that third quarter revenue and earnings improved from the second quarter.

The next index member slated to announce financials is Tech Data Corp., which intends to disclose third quarter results on Nov. 25. Much like the overall technology sector, the distributors’ shares have rallied sharply since February, rising from $19.07 (the 52-week low on Feb. 7) to $34.13 last week. Tech Data’s sales rose only 2 percent during the first half of 2003—not very impressive, until you consider rival Ingram Micro Inc.’s sales have slipped 4 percent this year.

Want to get a feel for Tech Data’s current business mood? Executive VP and CFO Jeffery Howells is scheduled to speak today (Nov. 17) at the Morgan Stanley Small Cap Executive Conference in Scottsdale, Ariz., and tomorrow (Nov. 18) at the Lehman Brothers Semiconductor and Computer Systems Conference in San Francisco. Chairman and CEO Steven Raymund, meanwhile, will speak at a Bear Stearns Trek to Comdex event in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

Raymund won’t be the only channel executive at Comdex. The show includes a three-day Channel Program, Monday through Wednesday, for solutions providers and value-added resellers. Those who attend will likely hear Cisco Systems Inc.’s latest voice-over-IP channel strategy. Four years ago, Cisco CEO John Chambers told me he was migrating every phone within the company to an IP-based system. After several delays, Chambers finally made good on that promise, according to BusinessWeek’s Nov. 24 edition

Hey, better late than never.

The Ziff Davis Channel Zone stock index tracks 30 channel-related stocks on a weekly basis. We don’t recommend buys, sells or holds. Rather, the index seeks to measure the channel’s financial health. We launched the index on October 24 with a value of 1000. Each stock in the index is equally weighted. For example, if one stock rises 5 percent and another falls 4 percent, the net result is a 1 percent gain.

Joseph C. Panettieri (joe_pan5@yahoo.com) has covered Silicon Valley since 1992. He is editorial director of the New York Institute of Technology and founder of JCP Media Inc.