Despite Gloom and Doom Predictions, Vista Gains Momentum - Where Does This Leave VARs?
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Where does this leave VARs, then? Unfortunately, Cherry believes there
aren't good opportunities for VARs to help customers upgrade to Vista,
especially if those customers plan to run Vista on
hardware bought before the OS was released.
"Because those machines do not have the capabilities to run Vista
well, it's not going to be a good experience," he says. Of course,
there's always the opportunity to help those struggling customers downgrade, as
many OEMs are offering XP downgrade kits with newly purchased hardware.
But Cherry says the real channel opportunity comes when resellers offer
properly configured hardware with sufficient processor, memory and graphics
resources to run Vista, and build in management and
maintenance on top of those systems.
"If the channel integrates machines that have the resources to run Vista,
then it'll be a great sale opportunity for them and a good experience for the
end customer," Cherry says.
Another reason for Vista's lackluster numbers could
just be a matter of prioritizing. Cherry says IT departments have a lot
on their plates right now, and that while organizations may decide to migrate
to Vista in the future, a desktop refresh may not top
priority lists this year. IDC's report says
Windows Vista won't accelerate companies' decisions to replace existing Windows
XP Pro and Windows 2000 Pro, but will simply function as a slow, necessary
"evolution" in corporate OS technology.
And when IT departments do decide to engage with their reseller to upgrade,
it most likely won't happen all at once.
"They're never going to replace 100 percent of all machines in a
company in a single year," Cherry says. If a typical desktop refresh
takes five or six years, then in 2008 only one-fifth or one-sixth of the
entire install base is upgrading, which could contribute to flat upgrade
numbers.
A Vista user himself, Cherry adds that while a lot of Vista's upgrades
amount to "flash and glitz," there's nothing inherently awful about
the OS, and it's simply difficult to hype features and motivate customers to
upgrade early when the OS market is so mature.
"Sure, there are arbitrary changes, there are things
about it I don't like," Cherry says. "They've moved different
[functions and options] to what I consider strange places, but … that's so
subjective. That's not reason to say it's a bad OS."
Microsoft Partner 
