Waiting for an end to the recession? Wondering
when your customers’ delayed projects will finally get the green light again?
Forrester Research now says IT spending growth will return in the fourth
quarter of this year and continue in 2010.
That forecast aligns with a recent report from Gartner, which is now
forecasting a return to PC sales growth in Q4.
The new forecast from Forrester comes in a report projecting a decline in
global purchases of IT goods and services by businesses and governments in 2009
by 10.6 percent in U.S. dollars. That compares to a previous forecast of just 3
percent.
Signs
and signals of a potential recovery is nigh?
Forrester says that new data about large declines in business technology
investment during Q1 prompted the update to the forecasts.
"While Q1 2009 saw a scary drop in purchases in the U.S.
tech market, ironically that is good news for the long run and we expect to see
a stronger rebound sooner," says Andrew Bartels, Forrester Research vice
president and principal analyst, in a prepared statement.
"The big drops are not precursors to further declines,” he says. “Rather,
we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in U.S.
tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in Q4 as businesses realize
that they overreacted in the first quarter. We also expect that tech markets in
Europe and Asia will start to
recover in the first half of 2010."
In terms of specific technology categories, Forrester projects 2009 computer
equipment purchasing to drop by 13.5 percent, communications equipment
purchasing to drop by 12.4 percent, software spending to drop by 8.2 percent,
and purchases of IT consulting and outsourcing services to drop by 8.6 percent.
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