Just when you thought PC sales would never
return, there's a glimmer of hope for a significant PC refresh cycle on the
horizon—good news for resellers of Dell, Hewlett-Packard and maybe even Apple.
Bernstein Research is now forecasting a return to PC unit growth next year—with
growth of 11 percent in 2010, 13 percent in 2011 and 12 percent in 2012 before
returning to a "normal" 10 percent growth rate in 2013.
That forecast aligns with recent comments from Dell and HP. Both companies have
said that they are expecting such a refresh cycle to come soon following a few
years of delays that correlate with the recession. Most recently, Dell's chief
financial officer said even with no change in the economy, a PC refresh would
begin in March or April of 2010 simply because PC life spans had already been
extended well beyond normal.
The Bernstein report, which also relies on the research company's own CIO
survey, says there will indeed be a "material client replacement cycle,"
and Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi says the arrival of that cycle is
dependent on a larger economic recovery.
"U.S. PC unit growth has historically been correlated with U.S. GDP
growth—which suggests a Q4 2009 or Q1 2010 recovery based on U.S. and global GDP
forecasts," writes Sacconaghi in the report. "Microsoft's release of
Windows 7 in October is also likely to influence timing (likely positive for
consumer in late 2009, but negative for corporate until early 2010 as
enterprises evaluate the product and wait for SP1 [Service Pack 1] to be
released)."
Looking at the trend of the 2001 and 2002 downturn, the Bernstein report notes
that corporate PC growth was below trend levels for two years and then
rebounded to above trend levels for the next three years.
"We think a similar phenomenon is likely to repeat itself in this downturn,"
writes Sacconaghi.
"Dell would benefit the most from a PC upgrade cycle, as PCs and related
offerings account for 80 percent of total company revenues versus about 30
percent for HP," Sacconaghi notes. "Moreover, Dell's PC business is
skewed towards mature corporate markets, which are most impacted by changes in
replacement rates."
The refresh cycle won't have as much of an impact on Apple, says Sacconaghi.
Rather, pricing actions and acceptance of the Mac platform are bigger drivers
for Apple than any corporate PC upgrade cycles.
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